
Winners
1: Mike Huckabee: Obviously he is a winner because he won the GOP caucus. However, Gov. Huckabee was able to make his win in Iowa meaningful with an eight point difference between him and Mitt Romney. A tie with Romney at first wouldn’t have been nearly as effective for him. His win last night may not help him much in New Hampshire, but it will give some momentum to his campaign in other January primaries, namely South Carolina, Michigan and Florida. If that is the case, then Gov. Huckabee could be unstoppable by February.
2: Barack Obama: Obama has taken his first step in dethroning Hillary Clinton as the Democratic front-runner. Unlike Gov. Huckabee, Sen. Obama’s win will help him in the New Hampshire primary and nearly every other state. I would go as far as to say that is Sen. Obama wins in New Hampshire, then he will very likely be the Democratic nominee.
3: John Edwards: By beating Hillary Clinton for 2nd place, Edwards was basically able to give validity to his candidacy and keep himself in the race. His strong finish in Iowa will keep him competitive in New Hampshire, where his “pro-worker” message will probably resonate well. If Edwards wins New Hampshire, then things would really get mixed up between the three Democratic front-runners.
4: John McCain: Even though Sen. McCain only tied for third, his showing in Iowa will still benefit him greatly. McCain barely spent any time in the Hawkeye state, but unlike Rudy Giuliani, his record and reputation resonated with voters. With a fairly strong showing in Iowa, Sen. McCain can now escape to New Hampshire, where he has a VERY good chance of winning.
Losers
1: Mitt Romney: Gov. Romney suffered a HUGE loss by placing second behind Mike Huckabee. Romney has spent millions of dollars from his own personal fortune in Iowa. By not winning, that money is now effectively “down the tube”. Gov. Romney is now at a place where he has to win in New Hampshire, or his candidacy will be D.O.A by the February 5th primaries.
2: Hillary Clinton: Sen. Clinton was counting on a win in Iowa, but it didn’t happen. After losing ground to Barack Obama in several states, Clinton really needs to tap into the “traditional” Democratic base voters in nearly every January primary state. A win in New Hampshire would regain some of the ground that she has lost nationaly to Obama and Edwards. Otherwise, it is hard to see how Sen. Clinton can recover from this third place finish.
3: Fred Thompson: The truth is that Fred Thompson should have won Iowa. The only person that stopped him was himself. At this point, last summer’s Thompson pandemonium counts for next to nothing. Why?, because Thompson’s less than enthusiastic campaigning allowed for Romney and Huckabee to slowly nip away at the conservative base that had once been his. Last night, Sen. Thompson didn’t do much more than survive the Iowa caucus. As a former Thompson zealot, it pains me to say this, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Thompson dropped out tomorrow. In order to win Thompson has to have a strong showing in New Hampshire, then follow that with a win in the South Carolina primary as well as a good share of the February 5th primaries. It may be a long shot, but it is his only chance.
4: Joe Biden and Chris Dodd: In any other election cycle, I’m pretty sure that these two would be at the front of the pack in most Democratic primaries. However, in 2008 it is extremely hard for the average John Kerry-type senator to compete with the star power of Obama and Clinton. Now that both of their campaigns are over, I think that it’s safe to say that neither of them ever stood a chance. What’s interesting about them dropping out is who they will endorse. Joe Biden’s supporters will especially be a welcome addition to any of the front-runner’s campaigns.